The fog of the present is real, and I think part of why it's so hard to escape is that we're trained to trust consensus as a proxy for truth. If everyone around you sees nothing unusual, the cognitive cost of seeing something unusual becomes very high. The historians' question is useful precisely because it changes the frame from "what is happening" to "what will have mattered." Those are almost never the same question.
I also wonder how much of our own lives we look back on as historical events, forgetting that we lived through the fog! There are plenty of people I know who do it with their past relationships.
Correct. I want to do a much longer version at some point that looks at your future self judging your life as the historian. What is the gap between the two?
This is a great piece. Very timely, given where the world's at right now. And yes, please inform me too: I don’t want to be that person living in denial long after the British Empire has fallen.
Another great piece George - good reminder that everything is perspective and makes you wonder what are we missing (or failing to understand) in the present
I generally take consensus as a red flag. I don't like to arrive at conclusions unless I'm comfortable with the underpinnings. This means that I say "I don't know" a lot. Because often, I feel that I genuinely don't. People seem to be very comfortable in expressing opinions on things they don't really know anything about. They'll happily borrow the ideas of some Thought Leader but be unable to explain how that conclusion was arrived at. Look for contrarians and counterfactuals. The discomfort with having ideas challenged should be embraced. Stay out of echo chambers and think for yourself.
This is cool. Is your note #1 a play? It feels like a play... but I lack certainty on that. If it isn't I'd love to hear more about that. It's not something I'd thought of.
Great read & narration ! Can you share more on how u linked the different timings of historical events with the quotes of various people ? Also, any specific history books u dug into for this post?
In analyzing stock market trends I often back test research. I.e. What did research analyst A predict a year ago and how did that turn out? Via back testing I learned which sources were most valuable and which were a total waste of time. The most helpful of all was using charts to pinpoint inflection points which helped me to develop a sixth sense for when the narrative was changing. Charts are one way of finding useful indicators in the "fog of the present."
Amazing read! A fascinating different way to view history that I wish was taught in schools. On the note on the British empire though, could you not say it has already fallen? You could argue that the handover of Hong Kong could have been a turning point, and the rebranding of the empire to the commonwealth (Im saying this as a brit myself btw)? What are your thoughts?
The fog of the present is real, and I think part of why it's so hard to escape is that we're trained to trust consensus as a proxy for truth. If everyone around you sees nothing unusual, the cognitive cost of seeing something unusual becomes very high. The historians' question is useful precisely because it changes the frame from "what is happening" to "what will have mattered." Those are almost never the same question.
🎯
Great piece. One for the anti consensus, paranoid contrarians.
This was way fun
such an important read - thank you!
Amazing content!
Woow amazing piece! In short, when the news is public. It’s too late
What a delicious read
I also wonder how much of our own lives we look back on as historical events, forgetting that we lived through the fog! There are plenty of people I know who do it with their past relationships.
Correct. I want to do a much longer version at some point that looks at your future self judging your life as the historian. What is the gap between the two?
This is a great piece. Very timely, given where the world's at right now. And yes, please inform me too: I don’t want to be that person living in denial long after the British Empire has fallen.
Thank goodness it hasn't happened yet!
Another great piece George - good reminder that everything is perspective and makes you wonder what are we missing (or failing to understand) in the present
I generally take consensus as a red flag. I don't like to arrive at conclusions unless I'm comfortable with the underpinnings. This means that I say "I don't know" a lot. Because often, I feel that I genuinely don't. People seem to be very comfortable in expressing opinions on things they don't really know anything about. They'll happily borrow the ideas of some Thought Leader but be unable to explain how that conclusion was arrived at. Look for contrarians and counterfactuals. The discomfort with having ideas challenged should be embraced. Stay out of echo chambers and think for yourself.
This is cool. Is your note #1 a play? It feels like a play... but I lack certainty on that. If it isn't I'd love to hear more about that. It's not something I'd thought of.
Great read & narration ! Can you share more on how u linked the different timings of historical events with the quotes of various people ? Also, any specific history books u dug into for this post?
In analyzing stock market trends I often back test research. I.e. What did research analyst A predict a year ago and how did that turn out? Via back testing I learned which sources were most valuable and which were a total waste of time. The most helpful of all was using charts to pinpoint inflection points which helped me to develop a sixth sense for when the narrative was changing. Charts are one way of finding useful indicators in the "fog of the present."
Amazing read! A fascinating different way to view history that I wish was taught in schools. On the note on the British empire though, could you not say it has already fallen? You could argue that the handover of Hong Kong could have been a turning point, and the rebranding of the empire to the commonwealth (Im saying this as a brit myself btw)? What are your thoughts?
I believe that's the punchline.
It is disturbing to observe the western democracies at the moment in this light.